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"Super El Nino is already wrecking havoc-what comes next?"

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Hello Nature readers, Today we investigate the effects of this year’s El Niño weather event, hear signs of success from an early trial of an osteoporosis therapy and consider how to safeguard reptiles and amphibians from illegal trafficking.

(Bagus Kurniawan/NurPhoto via Getty)

How this year’s super El Niño is different This year’s El Niño weather event is forecast to reach unprecedented strength. It’s also the first strong El Niño to form in the eastern (rather than central) Pacific since the late 1990s, when the Earth was cooler. These facts, combined with the climate crisis, make El Niño’s effects hard to predict, experts say. So far, the impacts resemble those of previous strong events, and are far-reaching: Drought conditions in Central America have slowed shipping traffic on the Panama Canal. The anchovy harvest at a fishery off the coast of Peru, one of the most productive in the world, was cancelled early as fish fled warm waters. Tens of millions of people in parts of southern and East Africa are predicted to experience acute food insecurity because of dry weather combined with high prices for fuel and fertilizer. Nature | 7 min read Read more: The United Nations cultural organization UNESCO has released an online tool for heritage professionals and policymakers to prepare for the impact of El Niño on cultural sites.

NSF funding to align with Trump goals The US National Science Foundation (NSF) is changing how it funds research grants — and how it decides which ones to fund — to better align with the priorities of US President Donald Trump’s administration. An NSF letter describes a shift to a “portfolio-based” approach to making grants that combines traditional “investigator-driven inquiry” with “NSF-directed opportunities”. It doesn’t specify what the opportunities will be. Agency staff who spoke to Nature worry that the changes will lead to further cuts for discovery-focused, curiosity-led research. Nature | 6 min read Reference: NSF statement

Up to 23 kilometres The amount by which Mercury appears to have shrunk since it formed — up to 30% more than previously thought. (Space.com | 6 min read) Reference: Geophysical Research Letters paper

Drug development

Trial hints at osteoporosis therapy success The results of a small trial hint that a one-time cell therapy could rebuild brittle bones in people with osteoporosis. Ten women with the condition received an infusion of their own bone-marrow cells that had been engineered to better penetrate bone tissue. After the trial, the women experienced far fewer fractures than they had before, but the exact effect of the cell therapy is difficult to pinpoint, say researchers. Participants were taking conventional osteoporosis medication before and during the trial, and it’s unclear how many therapeutic cells reached their target. Nature | 5 min read Reference: Cell paper Secret data supercharge AI protein models A consortium of five pharmaceutical companies says that feeding an enormous amount of their proprietary protein-structure data to an AI protein-folding model makes the tool work a lot better. Researchers are already in raptures about the potential of models such as AlphaFold and its descendents to drive drug discovery — but access to high-quality training data is key to real-world success. Members of the consortium, dubbed the AI Structural Biology (AISB) Network, say that they found a way to keep their data secret while still sharing it with OpenFold3, an open-source replication of AlphaFold 3. Nature | 9 min read Reference: Apheris blog post (not peer reviewed) Go deeper into the latest science surrounding biotechnology, drug discovery and pharma in our free weekly newsletter, Nature Briefing: Translational Research.

Infographic of the week

Nearly two-thirds of 4,262 adults in the United Kingdom surveyed said they trust scientists, giving a score of 7 or higher on a zero-to-ten scale. The most influential factors were whether respondents felt that scientists are "on the side of people like them" and whether they thought of scientists as open and transparent. As for actions that respondents said would help build trust, the top two were almost tied: scientists actively correcting misinformation, and explaining how their work improves ordinary people’s lives. (Nature | 6 min read)

Features & opinion

Tighten rules surrounding animal trade The ‘exotic’ wild animal trade disproportionately harms reptiles and amphibians, which are often taken directly from the wild and less effectively protected than mammals and birds, write a group of wildlife conservationists and animal-rights group members. Legal gaps enable the unsustainable trade in these species, but an upcoming meeting of the United Nations Convention against Transnational Organized Crime provides an unprecedented opportunity for reform. Governments around the world must act to strengthen the international response to wildlife trafficking to protect reptiles and amphibians harmed by the pet trade, the group writes. Nature | 10 min read

Five best science books this week Andrew Robinson’s pick of the top five science books to read this week includes the physics of spaceflight and the story of a polio vaccine pioneer. Nature | 4 min read

QUOTE OF THE DAY “Memory is fragile at first, more like wet cement than carved stone.” Psychologist Michael Craig explores evidence that we retain information better when we take a moment of rest, compared with jumping straight into an absorbing task. (The Conversation | 6 min read)

On Friday, Leif Penguinson was exploring Okefenokee Swamp, Georgia, the largest blackwater swamp in North America. Did you find the penguin? When you’re ready, here’s the answer. Thanks for reading, Flora Graham, chief editor, Nature Briefing With contributions by Jacob Smith

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